O que é análise fundamental

O que é análise fundamental

Fundamental analysis in trading is a method of evaluating financial assets (such as stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptocurrencies, or currencies) based on economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors. Its goal is to determine the intrinsic value of an asset and compare it with its current market price. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price, the asset may be considered undervalued, and vice versa.

 

Main aspects of fundamental analysis

a.     Fatores macroeconômicos:

These consider broader economic conditions that affect the entire market or specific sectors. Key indicators include:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation rate, Unemployment rate, Interest rates, geopolitical events (wars, trade disputes), Monetary Policy of central banks

b.     Microeconomic factors:

These focus on specific companies (stocks). Factors considered include:

Company revenue and profit, production costs, market share, financial indicators (e.g., price/earnings ratio, debt levels, dividend yields), quality of company management

 

Specific factors for different markets:

a.     Stocks: Assess annual reports, analysing balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements.

b.     Forex: Monitor interest rates, balance of payments, political stability, and the economic policies of individual countries.

c.      Commodities: Supply and demand, seasonal trends, geopolitical factors, natural disasters.

d.     Cryptocurrencies: Blockchain technology, adoption levels, regulatory environment, market capitalisation.

 

Key factors of fundamental analysis in forex

a.     Indicadores econômicos:

Economic data of countries is an important foundation for fundamental analysis of currency pairs (forex).

1.     Useful indicators include: Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Shows a country's overall economic performance. Strong GDP growth can lead to currency strengthening.

2.     Inflation rate: Measures the rate of price increases. Countries with moderate inflation tend to have more stable currencies, while high inflation can lead to currency depreciation.

3.     Interest rates: Central banks set interest rates to regulate the economy. Higher interest rates typically strengthen a currency as they attract foreign capital.

4.     Unemployment rate: Low unemployment signals a strong economy, which can support currency growth.

5.     Trade balance: Reflects the difference between exports and imports. Countries with a trade surplus (more exports than imports) tend to have stronger currencies.

b.     Fatores políticos e geopolíticos:

Political stability is an important factor. Political uncertainty, such as elections, wars, or trade disputes, can significantly impact currency values and drive demand for "safe havens" like gold, CHF, and USD.

c.      Monetary policy of central banks:

Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (FED), the European Central Bank (ECB), or the Bank of Japan (BoJ), influence currencies through changes in interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) or tightening, and interventions in the currency market.

d.     Eventos globais:

World events like pandemics, economic crises, or natural disasters, can affect currency values by changing global sentiment and economic conditions.